[GoLUG] LLMs can't reason

[Steve Litt]

On Wed, 18 Jun 2025 23:07:45 +0100 (GMT+01:00)
kc-golug at chadwicks.me.uk wrote:

> 18 Jun 2025 22:26:18 Steve Litt <slitt at 444domains.com>:
> 
> > The real problem is that, with programs designing programs
> > designing programs, and more and more AI machines and robots are
> > closely networked together,  
> 
> Except they aren't designing programs. They are just spitting out
> error probe chunks of code and the bigger the code base gets the
> worse it gets. The data even shows that humans using LLMs as tools
> which is the only way they can work results in significantly worse
> code quality. Any attempts of true AI (completely separate field to
> LLMs and "AI" of today) where programs are self modifying fail
> spectacularly. And as I have said innovation and reasoning from a
> position of understanding is not computable. All LLMs do is
> probabilistically exhibit what already exists whilst introducing
> errors and other quality issues.

The preceding paragraph is true today. But five years ago, I think 1
out of 100 people believed LLMs would get as smart as they have. LLMs'
genius startled Bill Gates, for gosh sakes. Now extrapolate the last 5
years of LLM progress into the next 5 or the next 20, and at some point
they'll write better code than most humans. Computers are already
beating chess masters, for gosh sakes.

In his teens, my father saw a World Book Encyclopedia article explaing
why it was impossible for man to go the moon. In the 1940's or 1950's
there were scholarly articles explaining why a human could not break
the 4 minute mile. The "sound barrier" is called a "barrier" because
once upon a time folks believed nothing could travel faster than the
speed of sound. Then bullets broke the sound barrier, probably because
of the invention of smokeless powder (nitro-celulose). Finally
airplanes did. They used to think absolutely nothing could escape
from a black hole. Then Hawking Radiation was discovered. Somwhere
around 2008 my health insurance agent told me the United States would
never eliminate screening for preexisting conditions. In 2014
Obamacare eliminated preexisting conditions. Speaking of Obama, I
knew people who said the United States would never have a black
president. I'm hoping humanity figures out a way to go faster than the
speed of light. That's a mighty ambitious goal that might be physically
impossible, but if it happens we can get off this planet we're busy
destroying.

Bottom line: Just because something can't be done today doesn't mean
I'd bet against it in the future. Progress has a way of continuing. I'm
hoping to be alive when Europe and/or China makes electricity for their
people using Fusion energy.

SteveT

Steve Litt 
Spring 2023 featured book: Troubleshooting Techniques of the Successful
Technologist http://www.troubleshooters.com/techniques